Kentucky Derby Betting: Will The New Qualification Format Impact ...

That?s the question that many horse racing experts are asking heading into the 2013 Kentucky Derby. Granted, most recreational horse players aren?t even aware that the qualification process for the Kentucky Derby has been altered but even they should understand at least the basic concepts of the changes if they?re looking to bet the race. The impact of the new qualification system is still being debate and probably won?t be fully determined until there?s a few races run under the new format. Since that won?t do you much good in terms of betting this year?s race we?ll summarize the changes and the arguments over how it?ll impact the race.

In the past the Kentucky Derby had a fairly wide open qualification process. A trainer showed up and paid the entry fee and his horse could run. Well, it?s not quite that simple?the horse could run provided that the field wasn?t ?oversubscribed? meaning if there wasn?t more horses than could be accommodated by the 20 entry limit in the Derby. At that point, eligible horses were ranked by the money they?d earned in graded stakes events. Not surprisingly, in recent years there has almost always been more than 20 horses looking to get into the field and connections were very cognizant of their chances of qualifying based on graded stakes earnings so if they weren?t ?in the hunt? they wouldn?t even bother.

For the first time this year there?s a more regimented process for qualifying for the Kentucky Derby via a NASCAR-esque ?points system? where horses earn points in designated prep races. In many ways this is a different way of achieving the same result but it does have it?s upsides, not the least of which is a stronger field and more urgency in many of the bigger prep events. There are some consequences?for example, under the new format the chances of a top flight filly like Rachel Alexandra or Zenyatta qualifying are slim and none. Some suggest this is a good thing.

But how will the new format impact the race itself? Noted handicapper Andy Beyer and others suggest that it will create a slower pace than in years past. Beyer?s theory is long on speculation and short on empirical examples but does make some sense?under the new format their are fewer sprinters looking to set insane fractions and more closers. Without insane front running speed a more manageable pace will materialize and make strong closing horses an event better bet.

Like just about everything else in horse racing there are proponents as well as detractors from this theory. Some suggest that Beyer?s ?insane sprinters? scenario is more fiction than fact and just hasn?t been borne out by the data of actual races. In any case, if you?re going to bet the Kentucky Derby you should be aware that the nature of the race may have changed due to the changes in the qualification process.

Source: http://maboot.com/will-the-new-qualification-format-impact-kentucky-derby-betting/

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